The current conditions deny the reality of Karabakh war II. The world powers do not wish a war to start in the region. Declaring its principled attitude on the stories happened lately, Azerbaijan once again demonstrated its strength and humanist policy. However, we will free our lands if international law is not applied.

Attitudes of Russia and USA to the start of a war can be evaluated as follows:

1) Very likely a war in the region is not desirable for the US for now, as it has no authority to control the situation in the region. If a war begins, the power to interfere in first of all is Russia, since that is inside the war and close to the region. This factor loses the general supervision of USA in the region. On the other hand, this imitation can be interesting to USA to minimize the Russian aggression in Ukraine.

2) To Russia, “open state” of the conflict, war is the most favorable tool to take the control of the present situation. Russia tries to destroy the influence of the US in the region. The Ukraine stories prove the Northern bear aims to defeat the scenarios of USA via pressure or war. If a war starts it can be assessed as a kind of ceasing effort of Russia or USA. However, Azerbaijan is a factor of strategic partnership, alliance to Russia. Azerbaijan and Russia cannot guarantee the regional cooperation and stability without each other. Without Azerbaijan, Armenia has no significance today for Russia. This is why the door of the Eurasian Union is closed for Armenia. This fact makes Russia think more comprehensively about the reality of a war. Russia is intended to deprive Armenia of “fraternal support”. Because of support to Armenia, Russia can lose a regional ally such as Azerbaijan, and this would completely destroy the image of Russia, which was ruined after the Ukraine incidents, even though it tries to demonstrate a humanist policy. For this cause, Russia will not back the start of war in the region. Bringing the heads of states together in the trilateral meeting relating a tensioned situation at the front, it tried to exhibit a peaceful policy.
              
In general, it would be a bit doubtful if Minsk group, consisted of USA, where Armenian lobby is strong, Russia, which takes care of Armenia, and France, which has declared Armenia its “sister”, takes a fair position. Situation is still stable though various ways of solution have been proposed.

Not only Azerbaijan, but USA and the West should also be interested to guarantee sustainable security of energy projects. Unfortunately, not resolute in the settlement of the problem, the West cannot or does not try to assess the danger of the conflict for the region.

Naila Mammadova
Azerbaijan Realities